MCS Influencer John Kenney recommends that contractors stop selling sustainability as an idea and start demonstrating sustainability as measurable performance.

For years, metal roofing has been promoted as a sustainable building choice. Durability, recyclability, reflectivity and long service life all support that position. But I believe the conversation needs to move beyond simply telling an owner that metal is sustainable. 

Owners increasingly want to know what sustainability and resilience mean financially. Does the roof last longer? Can it reduce future replacement cycles? Does it perform better during severe weather? Can it contribute to lower energy use? Are there insurance incentives or tax benefits available? Most importantly, can the contractor support those claims with actual information? That is where the opportunity is. After decades in construction, I’ve learned that a benefit becomes much more valuable when you can measure it.

Metal systems can offer a compelling lifecycle story because durability and resilience are closely connected. A roof that remains in service longer reduces the frequency of replacement, material disposal and disruption associated with reroofing. Metal also has well-established recycling advantages, and the metal construction industry continues developing environmental product declarations, lifecycle assessments and other documentation that allows owners and design professionals to evaluate environmental performance using data rather than general claims.

Resilience adds another dimension. When severe weather damages a roof, the cost extends far beyond replacing panels or repairing flashing. Roof failures can allow water into insulation, interiors, equipment and building contents. That is one reason insurers, states and communities continue placing greater emphasis on resilient construction and stronger roof performance.

That does not mean every metal roof automatically receives an insurance discount. This is where contractors need to be careful. Insurance incentives vary by carrier, state, building type, construction method and the specific resilience standard being met. Contractors should explain the performance characteristics of the system and provide supporting documentation, but the owner should verify potential premium reductions or incentives directly with their insurance professional.

The same caution applies to energy incentives. Reflective metal roofing can contribute to a building’s overall energy strategy, particularly when roof color, insulation, ventilation and the complete building envelope are considered together. But contractors should not assume that installing a reflective metal roof automatically creates a tax benefit. Sell the performance of the roof. Don’t sell the tax credit.

Your job is to provide accurate information about the roofing system. Let the owner’s accountant, tax adviser, insurance professional or design consultant determine which financial incentives apply. Where I think contractors can become much more effective is in documenting the long-term value of the system.

• Instead of simply saying, “Metal lasts longer,” provide documented service-life expectations from the manufacturer or credible industry sources.
• Instead of saying, “This roof is more energy efficient,” provide reflectance, emissivity and other applicable product data.
• Instead of saying, “Metal is environmentally friendly,” provide recycled-content information, environmental product declarations or lifecycle documentation when available.
• Instead of telling an owner the system is more resilient, explain the tested assemblies, attachment methods, uplift ratings, impact classifications and other performance characteristics applicable to the project.

That changes the conversation. Now the contractor is no longer making marketing claims. They are helping the owner evaluate risk, lifecycle cost and long-term building performance.

I also believe this becomes increasingly important as owners compare initial price against lifecycle value. Metal systems are not always the least expensive option on bid day. Contractors should not pretend otherwise. But the lowest initial price and the lowest long-term cost are not necessarily the same thing.

A system that provides longer service life, requires fewer replacement cycles, performs well under the environmental conditions of the building, and retains recyclable value at the end of its useful life deserves to be evaluated differently than a system chosen primarily because of initial cost. The strongest metal contractors will understand how to communicate that difference without overselling it.

Sustainability and resilience should not be treated as buzzwords. They are part of a larger business discussion about protecting the building, managing future risk and getting more value from the owner’s investment. Metal’s long-term advantage becomes much easier to understand when contractors stop selling sustainability as an idea and start demonstrating it as measurable performance.

By Emma Peterson. 

Industry veteran John Kenney shares his perspective on the current opportunities and challenges in the construction coatings market. 

In a new CoatingsTalk™, Heidi J. Ellsworth spoke with John Kenney about the state of the construction coatings industry and what is driving its current changes. John is the CEO of Cotney Consulting Group and has an extensive background in the industry, both being a third-generation roofer and having had over 45 years of experience in the field personally.  

When asked about what he’s seeing in the industry, specifically the coatings market, John used the word uneven. He explained, “I don't think you can simply describe construction as good or bad right now. Conditions are varying considerably by geographical and market segment... Overall, I’d say the market isn’t moving collectively in one direction.”  

But even without a clear direction, there are some trends that John has observed beyond the diversity of experiences across regions. One is the expansion of coatings beyond the roof. As he put it, “One of the things that I see as far as coating opportunities, they definitely extend beyond the roof; you have waterproofing, walls, decks and other type of protective applications... All this means that, even though backlogs have shrunk in some areas, there’s still profitable work in this market.” 

What has created this uneven but expanding market? John pointed to deferred capital spending and rising building owner understanding as some of the growth drivers. “Deferred capital spending can create many, many restoration opportunities. The need to maintain the assets are not going to disappear simply because the owner delays a larger capital project,” he explained. “And what we’re seeing is a lot of clients who are realizing coatings are the solution to deferring large amounts of spending while still maintaining their properties.” 

As for some of the factors slowing the market, John’s main points were about fuel prices that have been impacted by geopolitics, “ 

As we all know, geopolitics are turbulent and where we’re feeling that is with oil. Specifically, there’s less refining capabilities because of all the wars, so the reason why the output is less is because there's no way of making more. And that pressure is keeping things like oil prices, fuel shortages, diesel especially, and chemical costs high with no sign of coming down. And those high prices and shortages are felt in everything from gas prices and mobilization expenses to delivered material costs and more. 

Overall, John’s outlook is hesitant positivity. In his own words, “Projects aren't going to disappear. And I think that puts us in even a better position for what we're talking about here, restoration, coating, service and maintenance work even with the challenges.” 

Listen to the whole episode or Watch the recording to learn more!  

By Emma Peterson. 

Want to take your estimating skills to the next level? Don’t miss the chance to learn in-person from industry expert John Kenney!  

John Kenney will be teaching an Advanced Roofing Estimating Workshop in Lakewood, Florida this coming November. John, CEO of Cotney Consulting Group, has an extensive history in the industry doing everything from installing millions of square feet of roofing systems to managing multi-branch operations and generating millions in annual revenue. This level of expertise makes him the perfect person to learn from. His classes take attendees through real-world examples so that they are not only knowledgeable about the theory of estimating but experienced in the realities of it as well.  

This two-day workshop will cover:  

• Evaluating opportunities and knowing when to bid, pass or wait  
• Reviewing plans, specifications and scope requirements  
• Identifying estimating risk before pricing is finalized  
• Validating labor, crew size and productivity assumptions  
• Developing complete direct and indirect project costs  
• Reviewing material, equipment and subcontractor costs  
• Protecting margin through proper contingency and cost allocation  
• Identifying scope gaps and unclear project requirements  
• Developing responsible and competitive bid strategies  
• Reviewing estimates before submission  
• Preparing a complete estimating-to-operations handoff  
• Using the results of completed projects to improve future estimates 

This is a great opportunity for roofing estimators, project managers, operations leaders and business owners to take their skills beyond quantity takeoffs and basic unit pricing into strategy and skills that will improve their business’ profitability and efficiency. 

For this training in particular, attendees should already have a fundamental knowledge of estimating. Coffee, drinks, snacks and lunch will be provided during both training days, and all classroom exercises can be completed by hand using paper, pencil and a calculator. Laptops and estimating software are welcome but are not required. 

After registration, attendees will automatically receive a welcome package, which includes event details, travel information, preparation guidance and a pre-workshop self-assessment. 

Learn more about the event and get registered!

By John Kenney, Cotney Consulting Group. 

The first hour on a jobsite isn't just another sixty minutes on the schedule. It's where preparation meets execution. 

I've walked onto enough roofing projects over the years to know that crews usually understand how the day is going to unfold long before lunch. Sometimes it takes less than an hour. 

The materials arrive where they're supposed to. The crew knows the plan. Equipment is ready. Everyone understands their role, and work begins with purpose. There isn't much discussion because the important conversations already happened before the first ladder was climbed. 

Other times, you can feel the difference almost immediately. People are standing around waiting for direction. Materials aren't where they need to be. Someone is looking for tools that should have been loaded the day before. The foreman is answering three different questions at once while trying to coordinate deliveries and speak with the project manager. The crew is moving, but very little meaningful work is getting done. 

The project hasn't failed. But it has already begun to drift. 

One lesson this industry has taught me is that roofing projects rarely get into trouble because crews suddenly stop working hard. More often, they struggle because the day starts without a clear plan. Once that happens, everyone spends the rest of the day trying to recover time that was never really recoverable. 

The first hour on a jobsite isn't just another sixty minutes on the schedule. It's where preparation meets execution. Everything leading up to that moment either supports the crew or creates obstacles they have to overcome. The estimate, material orders, scheduling decisions, project handoff, weather planning, equipment coordination and communication all arrive on the roof at the same time. If any one of those pieces is missing, the crew feels it immediately. 

I've always believed that crews deserve better than having to solve problems that should have been resolved before they arrived. Roofers are there to build roofs. They're not there to figure out why materials were delivered to the wrong location, why the crane wasn't confirmed, why another trade is occupying the work area or why yesterday's unanswered questions are suddenly today's emergency. 

Unfortunately, those situations happen far more often than they should. One thing I've noticed throughout my career is that experienced foremen don't just manage work. They manage momentum. 

They understand that once a crew finds its rhythm, production improves naturally. The opposite is also true. Every unnecessary interruption forces the crew to stop, regroup and start over again. Most people underestimate how much productivity is lost each time that rhythm is broken. 

That's why the first hour matters so much. A strong start creates confidence. The crew sees that leadership has prepared the job properly. Materials are staged where they're needed. The day's objectives are understood. Safety expectations have been reviewed. Everyone begins working from the same plan. Confidence grows. Communication becomes easier. Production follows. 

A poor start creates something entirely different. Questions replace direction. Assumptions replace planning. Frustration begins building before meaningful production has even started. Once that happens, the foreman isn't leading the project anymore. They're managing disruption. 

There's an important distinction between motion and progress. I've watched jobs where everyone looked busy from the ground. Trucks were unloading. Equipment was moving. People were walking across the roof carrying materials. It appeared productive. But when you looked more closely, much of that activity stemmed from the work not being properly organized. Being busy has never guaranteed meaningful progress. Strong operations understand the difference. 

I've also learned that successful mornings actually begin the day before. The best project managers don't wait until sunrise to think about tomorrow's work. They've already confirmed deliveries. They've reviewed weather forecasts. They've communicated with suppliers and subcontractors. They've anticipated questions before the crew ever asks them. 

By the time the first truck arrives, leadership is thinking about execution—not scrambling to solve yesterday's unfinished business. That level of preparation rarely happens by accident. It's part of the company's culture. 

One characteristic I've consistently seen in high-performing roofing companies is that preparation is viewed as productive work, not administrative work. Too often, planning is treated as something that gets done if there's extra time. In reality, planning creates the extra time. 

The strongest foremen I've worked with understand something that younger leaders often learn through experience. They know they cannot control every challenge the day will bring. Weather changes. Deliveries get delayed. Hidden conditions appear after tear-off. Those realities are part of roofing. 

What they can control is how prepared the crew is when those situations occur. Preparation doesn't eliminate surprises. It gives the team the capacity to handle them without losing control of the project. 

Another observation that's stayed with me over the years is that crews pay close attention to leadership, even when they don't say much. They notice whether the foreman arrives prepared. They notice whether project managers follow through on commitments. They notice whether problems are anticipated or constantly reacted to. Those observations shape confidence, and confidence influences performance. 

Good leadership isn't measured by how many problems you solve during the day. It's often measured by how many problems your preparation prevented from happening in the first place. 

I've never believed that roofing is won solely by working harder. It's won by removing obstacles before hard work begins.  That's why the first hour tells me so much. It reflects every operational decision that led up to it. It reveals whether estimating communicated effectively. Whether project management planned thoroughly. Whether leadership stayed ahead of the work instead of reacting to it. Whether the company built a process or hoped experience would fill the gaps. By the end of that first hour, the crew usually knows whether they're executing a plan or creating one as they go.  

The difference isn't always visible on the first day. But over the life of the project, it almost always shows up in production, quality, customer confidence and profitability. 

The best roofing companies don't rely on great recoveries. They rely on great beginnings. Because in this business, the first hour on the jobsite rarely determines everything. But it usually tells you where everything is headed. 

By Emma Peterson. 

From major industry announcements and scholarship awards to emerging market trends and wildfire preparedness, these were the RCS articles that got the most clicks this August.  

August was a month of announcements here at The Coffee Shops®! For our team, we launched a new microsite (www.RoofersCoffeeShop.ca) designed specifically for the Canadian market. Similar to our U.K. microsite (www.RoofersCoffeeShop.uk), this site will not only bring together contractors in its dedicated region but also strengthen the global roofing community.  

In addition to our big announcement, our site saw a lot of announcements and quite a few of them made our August 2026 top article list. For example, one of our R-Club members, Excel Roofing and Siding, sent out an announcement of a name change to Excel Slate and Copper. This change was designed to “better reflect the company’s long-standing expertise in slate roofing, copper craftsmanship and historic home restoration.”  

Another example was the Roofing Alliance’s announcement about the 2026-2027 Melvin Kruger Scholarship. “A total of $59,000 was awarded for new scholarships with an additional $55,000 for 12 renewal scholarships.” 

And coming in first and second on our August 2026 top 10 article list were two announcements, both from industry associations. In second place was an article about the Colorado Roofing Association’s new advisory about wildlife code requirements. As for first place, that went to the he Metal Roofing Alliance (MRA) and the Metal Construction Association (MCA)’s announcement of the results of metal roofing market study conducted by FMI Consulting. 

The top 10 August articles 

10 - Excel Roofing and Siding becomes Excel Slate and Copper

9 - Why the most successful roofing contractors plan further ahead by John Kenney. 

8 - TPO or metal retrofit? Understanding the tradeoffs by The Coffee Shops® 

7 - When the economic signals don’t agree by John Kenney. 

6 - Becoming a ROOFEREE by Emma Peterson. 

5 - The secret to managing commercial roofing projects by Emma Peterson. 

4 - The Roofing Alliance announces 2026-2027 Melvin Kruger Scholarship recipients.

3 - Heavy-duty adhesives for every jobsite by The Coffee Shops®. 

2 - New advisory helps Colorado roofers prepare for wildfire code requirements by Alex Tolle. 

1 - New market survey forecasts strong growth, significant potential for residential metal roofing in U.S. 

By Emma Peterson. 

Industry veteran John Kenney explains how stronger connections between Canadian and American contractors can drive innovation, education and long-term industry growth. 

In our first-ever Roofing Road Trip® Canada edition, John Kenney and Karol Weyman discuss how the launch of RoofersCoffeeShop.ca will help build bonds between the Canadian and American roofing markets. John is the CEO of Cotney Consulting Group and a roofing veteran with decades of field experience. In his own words, “I started in the roofing industry more than four decades ago and working on the roof and learning the trade from the ground up. From there, I moved through estimating, project management operations and eventually executive leadership. Those experiences gave me a practical understanding of nearly every part of the roofing company.” 

And over the course of that storied career, John has experienced the value of collaboration between Canadian and American professionals firsthand:  

As my consulting and training work expanded, I began receiving more opportunities to work with contractors and manufacturers and also industry organizations like the Canadian Roofing Contractors Association (CRCA) throughout Canada. Working further north was a natural progression and I've learned just as much from the Canadian contractors as I hope they have learned from me as every market and every company offers a different perspective. 

It is experiences like John’s that the RoofersCoffeeShop.ca microsite aims to foster. Because when we all learn from each other, we all grow stronger. John shared some insights related to this, saying, “The roofing industry definitely becomes stronger when we take the time to learn from one another. The challenges contractors face don't stop at any kind of national borders or provincial borders, but each market does approach solving them differently based on their environments and cultures.”  

By building a space where contractors can build relationships with their peers in a different country, RoofersCoffeeShop.ca is helping share ideas and solutions that benefit everyone. In John’s words, “The more we openly share ideas, I think the stronger the entire industry becomes.” 

Check out the whole episode to learn more about how the launch of RoofersCoffeeShop.ca is fostering industry-growing relationships.

Check your systems before bringing in new technology. 

I’ve never seen software fix a bad process. I have seen the right technology make a disciplined operation considerably better. That distinction matters in metal construction because contractors have more technology available to them than ever before.

Project management platforms, BIM, mobile field tools, artificial intelligence and automated documentation are all moving deeper into construction workflows in 2026. Industry forecasts point to connected project data, digital project management, AI-assisted planning and greater automation as some of the technologies with the most practical impact on contractors. The problem is that buying software is easy. Getting people to use it consistently and proving that the changes improved the business are entirely different matters.

I’ve worked with contractors who had excellent technology but were still running parts of the company through phone calls, text messages and individual spreadsheets. They had invested in the system without changing the workflow. When that happens, technology becomes another layer of work instead of removing one. Before adopting anything new, I believe contractors should ask a basic question: What problem are we trying to solve?

If field information is reaching project managers too slowly, solve that problem; if drawings and revisions are getting lost between the office, fabrication shop and field, address that. If production data arrives weeks after the work is completed, improve the process. Start with the business issue and then evaluate the technology. not the other way around.

Metal construction especially benefits from connected information because fabrication and installation depend heavily on accuracy. BIM and shared digital models allow design, estimating, fabrication and field teams to work from better-coordinated information. When used correctly, that can reduce conflicts, improve prefabrication and help teams identify problems before material reaches the jobsite. The trend in 2026 is increasingly toward common data environments where project information is centralized rather than scattered across separate systems.

Artificial intelligence is also beginning to move beyond the conversation stage. The more useful applications I see aren’t about replacing project managers or estimators. They’re about helping those people identify schedule risks, procurement concerns, documentation gaps and coordination problems sooner. Emerging construction platforms are also reducing manual data entry through automated field capture and using project information to surface issues before they become expensive. But contractors need to measure whether any of this is actually working.

Don’t measure technology adoption by how many employees log into the system. Measure what changed after implementation. Did estimating time decrease? Are RFIs being resolved faster? Did field-to-office communication improve? Are crews spending less time waiting for information? Did rework decrease? Are project managers getting cost information early enough to make decisions? Those are business results.

Construction research continues to identify substantial time losses from searching for information and correcting rework, which is exactly why connected digital workflows have so much potential when they are implemented properly.

The people side may be the most important piece. A contractor can spend thousands of dollars on technology and lose the entire investment because the rollout consisted of an email saying, “Starting Monday, everyone uses this.” Change doesn’t work that way.

Bring the people doing the work into the process early. Ask project managers, estimators, shop personnel and field supervisors where they see friction. Let them test the system. Listen when they tell you something doesn’t fit the workflow. Then train them on more than which buttons to push. Explain why the change is being made and what problem it is intended to solve. People support change much more quickly when they understand the benefits.

Another lesson I’ve learned is not to digitize a broken process. Fix the process first. Then use technology to make that good process faster, more visible and more repeatable. The technology shaping metal construction will continue changing. AI will improve. BIM will become more connected to field execution. Automated documentation and predictive tools will become increasingly common. But none of those developments change the fundamentals of running a good contracting business.

Technology should give your people better information and more time to make good decisions. If it isn’t improving the workflow, reducing risk or strengthening project results, it isn’t transformation. It’s just another subscription.

By Emma Peterson. 

The importance of strong estimating practices in managing risk, protecting profitability and setting projects up for success. 

Estimating is the foundation of roofing projects – without an accurate assessment of a project, and the costs related to it, it's difficult to expect a project to go smoothly. But making sure your estimate is accurate is also one of the most challenging parts of a roofing project. To learn about how you can level up your estimating skills, we hosted John Kenney of Cotney Consulting Group for an episode of Roofing Road Trips®. 

Across the decades he has spent in the roofing industry, John has seen quite a few professionals struggle to build estimates. He shared the most common issue he sees, saying, “Estimators are taught how to measure roofs, how to price materials, but not how to manage the most important items, which is assumptions, communicate scope and company margins.”  

Why is it important that an estimator is aware of and managing these more abstract factors? As one of the first parts of any project, estimating is also the first step in risk management. John explained, “Estimating is really a decision-making role, not the takeoff one we see it presented as. As an estimator, you are the first to think through the project and make decisions about what will be done. That is directly tied to profitability and the risk.”  

So, how do you ensure you or your estimator are ready to tackle managing risk during the estimating process? Get the right training. John described how he trains estimators to go beyond the measurements and into risk management:  

We help them with estimating with a focus on giving them the skills that they won’t get in the field. So we focus on planning, communication, accountability and problem solving. Our goal is to give these leaders confidence and structure so they're not reacting all day. They're actually managing proactively. 

And managing proactively? That’s what shifts your estimating from just measurements and math to risk management and decision-making. And by making that shift, your company will be set up for successful, smooth projects. 

Want to learn more about estimator’s roles in risk management? Listen to the rest of the podcast!

By Alex Tolle, The Coffee Shops®.

Explore education focused on everything from roof performance and evolving codes to building-envelope design and business management at this year's show.

Continuing education gives roofing professionals an opportunity to step away from daily demands and take a closer look at the systems, materials, requirements and economic forces shaping their work. At the Western Roofing Expo 2026, hosted by Western States Roofing Contractors Association, attendees can explore a broad seminar lineup designed to strengthen roofing knowledge, connect technical decisions to better-performing buildings and help them make better business deciscions. 

The program starts with the evolution of core roofing systems. Ken Klein will examine four decades of single-ply roofing, including changes in materials, attachment methods and detailing driven by jobsite experience. Trent Cotney and John Kenney will offer a wider industry perspective by tracing how roofing materials, craftsmanship, codes and technology have developed over time.

Fire resilience is another important focus. Marco Sieber and Maury Alpert will discuss roof coverings and underlayments that can help mitigate the effects of flame and embers in the wildland-urban interface. Building on that conversation, Jess Grandy will review developing ventilation regulations and fire-resistant vent options intended to help homeowners prepare their properties and meet applicable codes. 

Attendees can also deepen their understanding of moisture and climate-related performance. Phil Dregger will share findings from a three-year study involving water accumulation and wood decay below reflective roofing. Mindy Dahlquist will explore how snow retention, ventilation, roof geometry and material selection affect roof performance in cold and mixed climates across the western United States. 

Several sessions turn attention to design responsibilities and changing building requirements. Brian Chamberlain will clarify the differences between design expectations and manufacturers’ published warranty coverage. Matt Braun will examine emerging air-barrier requirements for reroofing and explain how air, moisture and thermal-control layers interact. Brian will also lead a session on roof-to-wall connections, addressing air leakage, wind resistance, product compatibility and trade coordination at one of the building envelope’s most important junctions.

In addition to the technically focused sessions, there are sessions that focus on business management. One such session will be taught by our President and CEO, Heidi J. Ellsworth! In the session, Roofing Trends That Matter, Heidi will share about the RoofersCoffeeShop 2025 Trends Report, which collected contractor survey data from more than 200 roofing professionals representing residential, commercial and mixed contractors of all sizes. Attendees of this presentation will "gain insight into how contractors are adapting through technology, digital marketing and operational changes" and get practical tips for using "marketing, technology and community involvement to build trust, increase visibility and strengthen long-term business stability."

Together, these seminars offer practical education for professionals working to improve installation, design, compliance and long-term roof performance. Select sessions also provide continuing education opportunities through the American Institute of Architects and the International Institute of Building Enclosure Consultants.

Learn more about the education available at the Western Roofing Expo 2026.

By John Kenney, Cotney Consulting Group. 

How roofing contractors should plan for slower growth, uneven demand and continued volatility.

If you are having trouble deciding what the economy is telling you right now, you are not alone. The signals do not agree. 

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 jobs in July, while construction added 22,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, even as labor-force participation remained at 61.4%. The broader economy is still growing, but not rapidly. Real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first quarter. 

National construction backlog still looks reasonably healthy, yet architecture billings remain weak. Some contractors are carrying significant amounts of work, while others are telling me their runway is getting noticeably shorter. Data centers and power-related construction continue to perform extremely well, while several traditional commercial and residential markets remain much softer. 

Depending on which number you look at, you can make a case that the economy is still growing, the labor market is weakening or construction is holding up better than other sectors. All three can be true at the same time. 

That is a difficult environment to plan around, but it does not make planning impossible. I do not believe the current data tells us a severe recession is inevitable. I also do not believe it gives roofing contractors much reason to assume everything will work itself out. 

The more prudent position is somewhere in between. For business planning, I would operate on the assumption of slower growth, increasingly uneven demand, continued cost volatility, and elevated policy risk, while maintaining sufficientliquidity and operating flexibility to handle a genuine downturn if several of these pressures converge. 

That may not be the most exciting forecast, but it may be the most useful one. 

The headline economy is not the contractor economy 

One of the biggest mistakes business owners can make is assuming national economic statistics describe what is happening inside their company. They do not. Roofing contractors do not operate at the national average. 

They operate within a specific geographic area, serve a particular customer base, operate in certain market sectors, and depend on specific general contractors, owners, manufacturers, and suppliers. That means two roofing companies located a hundred miles apart can experience completely different economies. 

One contractor may be heavily exposed to data centers, health care, power generation or public-sector work and have more opportunities than the company can reasonably pursue. Another may depend heavily on retail, traditional office, private development or residential construction and find projects moving slower, owners hesitating, and competition becoming much more aggressive. 

Both companies are operating in the same national economy. They are simply experiencing different versions of it. That distinction matters when preparing a business plan. 

The question should not simply be, “How is construction doing?” The better question is, “How are the markets we depend on doing?” 

Construction is splitting into different markets 

The current backlog numbers illustrate the problem. Associated Builders and Contractors reported national construction backlog at 8.8 months in June. On the surface, that appears healthy. Look deeper, and the story becomes more complicated. 

Contractors involved in data-center work reported a backlog of 11.0 months, compared with 8.5 months for contractors without data-center exposure. Earlier in the year, ABC also reported that backlog growth was concentrated among the largest contractors, while smaller revenue groups showed weaker year-over-year results. 

That tells me we do not have one construction market right now. We have several. Data centers remain extremely strong, power-related construction continues to attract significant investment, and certain infrastructure and institutional sectorsremain active. 

At the same time, parts of manufacturing, private commercial development, office construction, and residential activity remain under pressure. Strong markets are becoming even stronger, while weak markets are becoming even weaker. 

The national average sits somewhere between the two and may accurately describe neither. That is why roofing executives need to understand their own market mix much better than they understand the national average. 

Backlog may be sending the wrong signal 

I have always paid close attention to backlog. It is one of the most important forward-looking indicators for a roofing company, but backlog must be understood correctly. A contractor can have plenty of work under contract and still have a production problem developing. 

I believe there are really three kinds of backlog. Reported backlog is the work you have under contract. Executable backlog is the work you realistically expect to move into production during the period planned. Profitable backlog is executable work that still meets the company’s margin expectations. 

Those numbers are not always the same. A roofing contractor may have a large project under contract today that is not scheduled to reach the roofing scope for another six months. If financing, permitting, another trade or the general construction schedule pushes that project back another 90 days, the project technically remains in backlog. However, the crew that was supposed to start that roof in October still needs somewhere to work. 

That is the difference between reported backlog and executable backlog. 

In my work with roofing and specialty contractors, I generally consider a quality, executable backlog of six months or more a healthy operating position. When the backlog approaches three months, I want leadership to monitor the bidding pipeline, award timing, and project start dates very closely. When it approaches two months, I become concerned because a single project delay, a lost award or a customer financing issue can quickly create a production gap. 

That is not a published national industry standard. It is an operating benchmark developed from years of managing and advising roofing companies. 

Right now, I am hearing more concern from roofing contractors around the country about shorter backlog visibility, delayed starts, and work that does not feel as certain as it did several months ago. That field feedback deserves attention. 

A contractor with nine months of reported backlog but only four months of reliably executable work has a four-month problem, not a nine-month solution. 

Labor is weakening without becoming easy 

The labor market is sending another mixed signal. National hiring has slowed significantly. May and June payroll gains were revised lower, and total nonfarm employment declined in July. Labor-force participation has also fallen since the beginning of the year. 

Those are legitimate signs of a cooling labor market, but roofing contractors should not assume that means skilled people will suddenly become easy to find. They will not. 

A slower national economy may increase the number of people seeking work, but it does not automatically create experienced roofing estimators, project managers, superintendents, service technicians or foremen. Those skills take years to develop. 

Our industry is also dealing with a generational transition as experienced people retire and companies compete for a limited pool of proven talent. That creates another planning challenge. 

Contractors should be cautious about adding overhead simply because they expect future growth. They should be equally cautious about cutting experienced people too quickly because the economic headlines turn negative. Replacing a strong estimator or project manager twelve months from now may be much more difficult than retaining that person through a slower period. 

The forward pipeline deserves attention 

Backlog tells us what contractors already have. Architecture and design activity can tell us something about what may be coming. That is why I believe the Architecture Billings Index deserves attention. 

The June Architecture Billings Index came in at 47.3, remaining below the 50 level associated with growth. Architecture-firm backlog also declined from 6.6 months in the first quarter to 6.3 months in the second quarter. 

I would not use that information to predict a construction collapse. I would use it as another reason not to become complacent. Design work occurs well before construction, and when design activity remains weak for an extended period, it can eventually result in fewer projects reaching the bidding stage. 

That becomes particularly important as contractors begin developing their 2027 budgets. The work you are installing today was often designed and financed many months ago. The condition of the design pipeline today may tell us more about the opportunities available next year. 

Delays may matter more than cancellations 

There is another issue I believe contractors sometimes underestimate. Projects do not have to disappear to hurt your business. They only need to move. 

Contractor surveys this year have continued to show a significant number of projects postponed, scaled back or canceled. From an operational standpoint, a postponement can sometimes be nearly as disruptive as a cancellation. 

Imagine you have a $2 million roofing project scheduled to begin in October. The owner still intends to build it, the contract still exists, and the project remains in your backlog. But financing problems push the start into February. 

Your backlog report may barely change, while your October production schedule changes dramatically. Now you have crews without the work you expected, equipment sitting idle, overhead continuing, and cash flow shifting. Other jobs may need to be accelerated to fill the hole. 

That is why contractors need to talk with general contractors and owners about more than whether a project is still active. Ask whether the start date is still realistic. That conversation can be far more valuable than simply looking at the backlog report. 

Costs have not returned to normal 

A slowing economy would be easier to manage if costs were declining at the same time. That is not necessarily the environment contractors are operating in. 

July’s inflation reports are a good example of why the headlines can be misleading. Consumer prices rose only 0.1% in July, and the annual inflation rate eased slightly to 3.4%. Producer prices were flat overall for the month. That soundsencouraging, and it is, but it does not mean prices are falling. 

If inflation drops from 4% to 3%, that does not mean prices fell 1%. It means prices are still increasing, just at a slower rate than before. The same distinction matters on the producer side. Even with no overall increase in July, producer prices were still 4.7% higher than a year earlier. 

For construction, the picture was even more important. Construction input prices edged up 0.1% in July and remained 7.4% higher than a year earlier. A lower inflation rate can slow the erosion of margins, but it does not automatically restore them. 

Material prices remain elevated, insurance continues to pressure overhead and skilled labor costs remain high. Fuel and freight can change quickly and recent disruptions involving global refinery capacity and major shipping routes are another reminder that energy costs can move independently of the broader economic cycle. Financing also remains expensive compared with the environment contractors grew accustomed to years ago. 

That creates one of the more difficult combinations for any business. Slower growth reduces pricing power, higher costs squeeze margins, and shorter backlog increases the temptation to chase work. 

That is where discipline matters. The worst response to a weakening market can be filling the schedule with low-margin work simply because everyone is worried about keeping crews busy. 

Busy and profitable are not the same thing. That lesson becomes even more important when the market starts slowing. 

Build a plan that does not require you to be right 

This is the part I believe matters most as contractors prepare for 2027. The best business plan in an uncertain economy is not the one built around the most accurate forecast. It is the one that still works when the forecast is wrong. 

I would build next year’s plan around three scenarios. The base case assumes slower growth, uneven construction demand, and continued cost volatility. The upside case assumes financing improves, project starts accelerate, and demand begins broadening across more construction sectors. 

The downside case assumes several pressures converge at the same time: employment weakens further, financing becomes more difficult, project delays increase, the backlog declines, and cost pressures remain. 

I am not suggesting contractors build three separate companies or three completely different budgets. I am suggesting leadership understand what happens under each scenario. 

What happens to revenue and gross margin? How much backlog and cash do we need? When do we stop hiring or adjust overhead? Which capital expenditures can wait? Which investments continue regardless of conditions? At what point does declining executable backlog trigger a change in strategy? 

Those decisions are much easier to make today than when everyone is already under pressure. 

Liquidity is strategic flexibility 

Cash is sometimes treated as money simply sitting on the balance sheet. During uncertain markets, liquidity is much more valuable than that because it creates options. 

It allows a company to retain a strong employee through a temporary slowdown, purchase materials earlier when there is a legitimate financial advantage, absorb a delayed project, and pursue an opportunity when a competitor cannot. 

Most importantly, liquidity prevents desperation. Companies under financial pressure often make poor decisions because they run out of time. They bid projects they should not bid, accept margins they should not accept, borrow under unfavorable terms, delay necessary investments, and make personnel decisions based on what happens next week rather than where the company needs to be next year. 

Liquidity buys time, and time creates better decisions. 

Do not cut away your ability to grow 

Preparing for slower growth does not mean putting the company into recession mode. That would be another mistake. 

If conditions weaken, contractors should absolutely challenge overhead, delay unnecessary purchases, protect cash, review expenses, and improve collections. But there is a difference between eliminating waste and eliminating capacity. 

Your strongest estimator is capacity. Your best project manager is capacity. Your service department is capacity. Leadership development is capacity. Technology that improves estimating, project visibility, and job costing may also be capacity. 

A contractor can cut so deeply during a slowdown that the company survives the downturn but is unable to take advantage of the recovery. That is why I prefer flexibility over fear. 

Protect the capabilities that make the company stronger. Challenge the expenses that do not. 

What I would be doing going into 2027 

If I were sitting with a roofing contractor today, preparing next year’s business plan, I would begin with the executable backlog rather than the total backlog. 

I would review what is realistically scheduled at 30, 60, 90, 180, and 270 days, then stress-test it. What happens if one large project is delayed by 90 days? What happens if two projects move? Which customers represent the greatest concentration risk? Which jobs still depend on financing or other approvals? Which projects have aggressive margin assumptions? 

I would review the bid pipeline and hit rates. I would increase business development before backlog becomes critical rather than waiting until crews need work. I would watch collections and cash conversion closely, preserve available credit even if I did not expect to use it, challenge major capital expenditures, and protect strong people and productive operating capacity. 

Most importantly, I would establish clear trigger points for when the company changes course. If the executable backlog falls below a predetermined level, what actions are taken? If gross margin misses plan for two consecutive months, what gets reviewed? If accounts receivable starts to stretch, who owns the response? If major projects move, when does labor planning change? 

Those decisions should not be made for the first time during a crisis. The time to make them is now. 

Planning without pretending to know the future 

I do not believe roofing executives should plan as though a recession is inevitable. I also do not believe they should assume today’s economic pressures will work themselves out. 

The more prudent position lies between those two extremes. Build the company around a reasonable expectation of slower growth, increasingly uneven demand and continued cost volatility. Maintain enough liquidity and operating flexibility to withstand a genuine downturn if several pressures converge. 

At the same time, preserve enough capacity to take advantage of opportunity if conditions improve. 

The economic signals may continue to disagree. That does not mean leadership has to be uncertain. We do not need to know exactly what the economy will do next. We need to build roofing companies capable of succeeding under more than one outcome. 

That is not pessimism. It is responsible business planning.