Estimating complex jobs in high snow elevation during uncertain times

MCS Influencer Anthony Ortega says the ability to forecast accurately and manage uncertainty will remain one of the most valuable skills an estimator can bring to the table.

In the Mountain West, complexity extends well beyond material pricing. Many of our projects here at Viotell Metal Concepts are located at elevation in communities like Promontory, Tuhaye, Wasatch Peaks and Powder Mountain, where snow loads, weather windows, access constraints and architectural complexity all influence project costs. An estimator may be pricing the same standing seam roof system, but the risk profile of a luxury mountain estate is vastly different than a conventional project in a suburban market. 

Over the last several years, contractors have navigated material shortages, labor constraints, freight volatility and shifting project schedules. While many of those disruptions have stabilized, uncertainty remains a constant. The challenge for estimators today isn't just determining what a project costs. It's understanding what could change between bid day and project completion. 

In the architectural metal and roofing industry, we regularly work on projects that can span months or even years from award to completion. During that time, labor availability, material pricing and project sequencing can all shift significantly. The estimator's responsibility is to identify those risks early and ensure they are accounted for before a contract is signed. 

We've found that the biggest estimating misses rarely come from material takeoffs. They come from underestimating complexity. A roof that looks straightforward on a set of plans may require multiple mobilizations, specialized snow retention systems, custom fabrication, difficult site access or sequencing around other trades. Those factors often have a larger impact on profitability than fluctuations in metal pricing. 

The best estimators spend as much time evaluating risk as they do measuring scope. They ask questions. Is the schedule realistic? Are critical details fully developed? Will multiple mobilizations be required? Is specialized labor available when the project needs it? These questions often have a greater impact on profitability than the cost of materials themselves. 

Forecasting also plays a critical role. Historical production rates, labor performance and lessons learned from completed projects provide valuable data that estimators can use to improve accuracy. Companies that maintain strong feedback loops between estimating, project management and field operations consistently outperform those that operate in silos. 

Ultimately, successful estimating isn't about being the lowest number on bid day. It's about developing a realistic understanding of the work, communicating risk clearly and positioning both the contractor and client for success. 

As projects continue to grow in complexity, the ability to forecast accurately and manage uncertainty will remain one of the most valuable skills an estimator can bring to the table.