The best estimators don't guess — They forecast

MCS Influencer John Kenney says estimating complex jobs isn't about producing the lowest number. It's about producing the most accurate number.

One of the fastest ways to lose money on a metal construction project is to underestimate its complexity. Most estimating mistakes don't happen because someone missed a square or forgot a material item. They happen because the estimator didn't fully understand what it would take to execute the work in the field. 

I've seen contractors win projects only to spend the next several months trying to recover margins that were lost before the job ever started. By the time production discovers the estimate was too aggressive, it's usually too late. The project is underway, commitments have been made and the company is forced into damage-control mode. 

That's why estimating complex jobs has become less about counting materials and more about forecasting execution. 

Today's metal projects are often far more complicated than they were even a decade ago. Building designs are more intricate, schedules are tighter and owners expect greater coordination among trades. Add labor uncertainty, material volatility and evolving project delivery methods and the estimator's role becomes much more strategic than simply preparing a bid. 

One of the biggest improvements I've seen in recent years is the use of technology to visualize projects better before construction begins. Three-dimensional modeling and digital takeoff platforms allow estimators to see details that might have been overlooked on traditional drawings. Complex transitions, elevation changes, material interfaces and sequencing challenges become easier to identify before they become expensive field problems. 

The real value of these tools isn't that they produce numbers faster. The value is that they help estimators ask better questions. 

I've reviewed plenty of estimates where the quantities were accurate, but the labor assumptions were completely wrong. The estimator understood what materials were required but didn't fully appreciate the difficulty of installation. Technology helps bridge that gap by providing a clearer picture of how the work will actually come together. 

That becomes especially important when bidding on projects during periods of labor or material uncertainty. 

For years, contractors could often rely on relatively stable pricing and workforce availability. Today, conditions can change quickly. Material lead times fluctuate, labor availability shifts and project schedules move with little warning. Estimators who rely solely on historical production rates or old pricing data are taking unnecessary risks. 

The best estimators are constantly evaluating current market conditions. They maintain close communication with suppliers, stay informed about labor availability and build contingencies into their thinking. That doesn't mean padding numbers. It means understanding where risk exists and accounting for it appropriately. 

One of the most common causes of project overruns is underestimating labor. Material costs are usually visible and relatively easy to track. Labor is where profitability often disappears. 

I've always believed that estimating labor requires a combination of data and experience. Production history is important, but so is understanding field conditions. Access limitations, weather exposure, congestion from other trades and building complexity all influence productivity. Estimators who spend time with project managers, superintendents and field crews tend to develop more realistic labor forecasts because they understand how projects actually unfold. 

Forecasting also requires looking beyond the bid date. What will material availability look like six months from now? Will manpower be available when the project starts? Are there seasonal factors that could impact production? These questions may not have perfect answers, but they deserve consideration. 

The companies that consistently perform well are usually the ones that closely integrate estimating and operations. Estimators don't work in isolation. They collaborate with production teams, review completed projects and continuously refine assumptions based on actual results. That feedback loop improves forecasting accuracy and reduces surprises. 

Technology certainly plays an important role in modern estimating, but technology alone won't prevent bad bids. Software can generate quantities and models, but it cannot replace judgment. The most successful estimators combine digital tools with practical field knowledge and a clear understanding of project risk. 

At the end of the day, estimating complex jobs isn't about producing the lowest number. It's about producing the most accurate number. Contractors who focus on forecasting execution — not just calculating quantities — position themselves to win profitable work, avoid costly overruns and build stronger businesses over the long term.